by Andrew Grandahl
These are difficult times for environmentalists in the United States. Most Americans concerned about matters of pollution and climate change are simply bracing themselves for the next round of environmental deregulations and fossil fuel favors to be handed out by the Trump administration. And they're right to feel this way; the current presidential cabinet has proven over and over that they're intent on siding with entrenched, dirty energy actors anytime the opportunity presents itself.
Thankfully, during President Obama's tenure, several initiatives were launched with the goal of bringing about technological progress in renewable energy. Typically, these programs begin with more research-intensive phases; the real-world benefits of this type of research can take time, sometimes several years or even decades, to be fully realized.
Last week, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, or NREL, released a report on one of these initiatives that should spark hope in the hearts of every American who cares about the future of renewable energy and climate.
In 2011, the U.S. Department of Energy launched the SunShot Initiative. A collaboration between private and public institutions, universities, nonprofits, and national laboratories, the program’s goal was to make solar energy accessible and affordable to all Americans, as well as hastening the United States' transition to renewable energy. By utilizing multiple approaches and strategies, SunShot has in its first six years proven itself to be a resounding success. Utility-scale solar in the U.S. has hit its SunShot cost targets a full three years ahead of schedule.
NREL reports that utility-scale solar has seen a drop in its average price to 6 cents per kilowatt-hour, and less than a dollar per watt. This is all the more remarkable when you consider that in 2011, the rate for utility-scale solar was 27 cents per kilowatt hour. SunShot has helped make solar in the U.S. more than four times more affordable in a six year period, and between the first quarters of 2016 and 2017, the price of utility-scale solar dropped 29%. Now that is something to celebrate.
The solar industry as a whole is more than 85% of its way to achieving the 2020 commercial-scale and residential cost targets set up by SunShot in 2011. The most obvious impact of these drastic cost reductions is simply the massive increase in solar installations of all scales across the country. According to SunShot’s 2017 First Quarter Report, the U.S. installed close to 15 gigawatts of solar capacity in 2016, nearly twice the amount installed the previous year. Out of all new electricity generation capacity installed in 2016, solar installations comprised 40%. What's more, an additional 8.7 gigawatts of wind power was installed during 2016, meaning approximately 60% of newly-installed electricity generation in the United States was from renewable resources. One thing is abundantly clear: the clean energy revolution is in full swing. These upward trends are showing no sign of slowing down, and though renewables still only provide a small amount of overall U.S. electricity generation, in the coming years, we can expect that to change.
Innovations in technology have been largely responsible for declining costs in both utility-scale and residential solar. Solar module costs have seen dramatic reductions in the past few years, thanks to innovative designs, new diamond sawing methods to produce silicon wafers, and an extremely strong supply of PV modules. By meeting these cost goals well ahead of schedule, initiatives like SunShot can now focus on other priorities, such as using solar generation to improve grid reliability, and even more ambitious cost targets for 2030. Right now, the goal for 2030 utility-scale solar is a remarkable three cents per kilowatt hour.
It’s easy to be cynical in the current political climate. But the truth is, we are inheriting the benefits of smart policy programs and research initiativess launched half a decade ago. The results of those investments have catapulted the renewable energy sector into irreversible economic viability. What felt like a pipe dream ten years back is now the new norm; solar and wind more and more are powering our electrical grids and our homes, and will only be doing more so in years to come. So despite the gloomy forecast coming out of Washington D.C., for electricity generation in the United States of America, the energy forecast is very sunny indeed.